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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Fortune Trend technology Co., Ltd. (688318.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.85 - $73.91$49.47
Multi-Stage$25.95 - $28.31$27.11
Blended Fair Value$38.29
Current Price$161.48
Upside-76.29%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS20.56%28.97%0.690.250.500.360.220.270.270.000.130.05
YoY Growth--170.36%-49.54%40.00%66.67%-20.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%150.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.47%0.32%0.69%0.77%0.40%0.37%0.37%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)344.14
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)112.05
(=) Cash Retained (M)232.09
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)68.8343.0225.81
Cash Retained (M)232.09232.09232.09
(-) Cash Required (M)-68.83-43.02-25.81
(=) Excess Retained (M)163.26189.07206.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)185.22185.22185.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.881.021.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.881.021.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.491.631.72
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.85$49.47$73.91
Upside / Downside-78.42%-69.36%-54.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)344.14366.51390.33415.70442.73471.50485.65
Payout Ratio32.56%44.05%55.54%67.02%78.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)112.05161.44216.77278.62347.59424.35449.22

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)145.38146.76148.14
Year 2 PV (M)175.80179.15182.53
Year 3 PV (M)203.49209.33215.28
Year 4 PV (M)228.62237.41246.45
Year 5 PV (M)251.35263.49276.10
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,801.273,984.874,175.50
Equity Value (M)4,805.915,021.025,244.00
Shares Outstanding (M)185.22185.22185.22
Fair Value$25.95$27.11$28.31
Upside / Downside-83.93%-83.21%-82.47%

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