Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Jing-jin Electric Technologies Co.,Ltd. (688280.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.45 - $0.68$0.56
Multi-Stage$0.84 - $0.93$0.88
Blended Fair Value$0.72
Current Price$8.52
Upside-91.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS13.14%0.00%0.020.020.020.020.010.010.020.090.000.00
YoY Growth---5.15%4.86%-11.38%325.88%-50.61%-30.18%-83.54%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.36%0.40%0.22%0.22%0.03%0.06%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.56
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7.30
(=) Cash Retained (M)26.26
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.714.192.52
Cash Retained (M)26.2626.2626.26
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.71-4.19-2.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)19.5522.0623.74
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)598.35598.35598.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.010.010.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.040.050.05
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.45$0.56$0.68
Upside / Downside-94.67%-93.43%-92.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.5633.2232.8932.5632.2331.9132.87
Payout Ratio21.75%35.40%49.05%62.70%76.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7.3011.7616.1320.4124.6128.7230.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)10.8110.9211.03
Year 2 PV (M)13.6313.9114.19
Year 3 PV (M)15.8616.3516.85
Year 4 PV (M)17.5818.3019.05
Year 5 PV (M)18.8619.8420.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)426.34448.54471.66
Equity Value (M)503.07527.86553.65
Shares Outstanding (M)598.35598.35598.35
Fair Value$0.84$0.88$0.93
Upside / Downside-90.13%-89.65%-89.14%

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