DDM Analysis: 688131.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$54.42 - $279.95	$110.87
Multi-Stage	$29.82 - $32.63	$31.20
Blended Fair Value	$71.04
Current Price	$82.60
Upside	-14.00%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.39%	63.70%	0.22	0.19	0.22	0.01	0.01	0.11	0.01	0.00	0.03	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	15.38%	-13.40%	2,486.58%	-30.72%	-88.58%	656.16%	296.77%	-88.56%	73.64%	1,033.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.55%	0.76%	0.39%	0.01%	0.01%	0.10%	0.00%	0.00%	0.03%	0.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	294.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	48.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)	246.33

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	58.98	36.86	22.12
Cash Retained (M)	246.33	246.33	246.33
(-) Cash Required (M)	-58.98	-36.86	-22.12
(=) Excess Retained (M)	187.35	209.47	224.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	209.50	209.50	209.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	1.00	1.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.23	0.23	0.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.89	1.00	1.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.13	1.23	1.30
WACC / Discount Rate	7.68%	7.68%	7.68%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$54.42	$110.87	$279.95
Upside / Downside	-34.12%	34.23%	238.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	294.90	314.07	334.48	356.23	379.38	404.04	416.16
Payout Ratio	16.47%	31.18%	45.88%	60.59%	75.29%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	48.57	97.91	153.47	215.83	285.65	363.64	384.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.68%	7.68%	7.68%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	90.07	90.93	91.78
Year 2 PV (M)	129.87	132.35	134.84
Year 3 PV (M)	168.02	172.85	177.76
Year 4 PV (M)	204.58	212.44	220.54
Year 5 PV (M)	239.58	251.15	263.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,415.52	5,677.09	5,948.67
Equity Value (M)	6,247.64	6,536.80	6,836.76
Shares Outstanding (M)	209.50	209.50	209.50
Fair Value	$29.82	$31.20	$32.63
Upside / Downside	-63.90%	-62.22%	-60.49%

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Shanghai Haoyuan Chemexpress Co., Ltd. (688131.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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