Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai QiFan Cable Co., Ltd (605222.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.72 - $15.15$9.75
Multi-Stage$29.09 - $32.13$30.58
Blended Fair Value$20.17
Current Price$19.10
Upside5.58%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS47.20%0.00%0.520.110.250.330.120.080.340.040.040.00
YoY Growth--384.46%-56.74%-23.92%168.97%61.15%-78.03%795.49%-6.23%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.38%0.61%1.08%1.60%0.58%0.28%1.29%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)148.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)103.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)44.97
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)29.7518.5911.16
Cash Retained (M)44.9744.9744.97
(-) Cash Required (M)-29.75-18.59-11.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)15.2226.3833.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)413.37413.37413.37
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.060.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.290.310.33
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.72$9.75$15.15
Upside / Downside-64.81%-48.95%-20.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)148.74147.25145.78144.32142.88141.45145.69
Payout Ratio69.76%73.81%77.86%81.91%85.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)103.77108.69113.50118.21122.81127.30134.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.20%2.20%2.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)105.28106.35107.43
Year 2 PV (M)106.49108.67110.88
Year 3 PV (M)107.43110.75114.14
Year 4 PV (M)108.10112.58117.20
Year 5 PV (M)108.55114.20120.08
PV of Terminal Value (M)11,490.7812,089.1312,712.15
Equity Value (M)12,026.6212,641.6913,281.88
Shares Outstanding (M)413.37413.37413.37
Fair Value$29.09$30.58$32.13
Upside / Downside52.32%60.11%68.22%

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