DDM Analysis: 605001.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.54 - $3.93	$3.18
Multi-Stage	$5.95 - $6.54	$6.24
Blended Fair Value	$4.71
Current Price	$7.55
Upside	-37.64%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	31.94%	0.00%	0.33	0.12	0.14	0.29	0.08	0.08	0.07	0.12	0.83	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	170.00%	-10.11%	-53.08%	270.28%	-5.18%	17.61%	-40.33%	-85.70%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.92%	2.02%	1.91%	4.03%	0.71%	0.46%	0.39%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	106.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	81.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)	25.23

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.34	13.34	8.00
Cash Retained (M)	25.23	25.23	25.23
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.34	-13.34	-8.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3.89	11.90	17.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	392.89	392.89	392.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.21	0.21	0.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.22	0.24	0.25
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Fair Value	$2.54	$3.18	$3.93
Upside / Downside	-66.42%	-57.88%	-47.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	106.70	105.63	104.57	103.53	102.49	101.47	104.51
Payout Ratio	76.35%	79.08%	81.81%	84.54%	87.27%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	81.46	83.53	85.55	87.52	89.44	91.32	96.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.40%	6.40%	6.40%
Growth Rate	-2.00%	-1.00%	0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)	77.72	78.51	79.30
Year 2 PV (M)	74.05	75.57	77.11
Year 3 PV (M)	70.48	72.66	74.89
Year 4 PV (M)	67.02	69.80	72.66
Year 5 PV (M)	63.66	66.97	70.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,983.47	2,086.75	2,194.29
Equity Value (M)	2,336.40	2,450.27	2,568.68
Shares Outstanding (M)	392.89	392.89	392.89
Fair Value	$5.95	$6.24	$6.54
Upside / Downside	-21.23%	-17.40%	-13.40%

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Qingdao Victall Railway Co., Ltd. (605001.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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