DDM Analysis: 603866.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.94 - $4.99	$3.83
Multi-Stage	$5.79 - $6.36	$6.07
Blended Fair Value	$4.95
Current Price	$5.40
Upside	-8.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	1.78%	14.00%	0.32	0.35	0.36	0.43	0.41	0.29	0.24	0.08	0.16	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-8.22%	-3.59%	-14.72%	3.66%	39.66%	25.22%	178.81%	-45.88%	199.45%	-40.03%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.64%	5.45%	2.80%	3.56%	2.02%	1.40%	1.33%	0.57%	1.17%	0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	385.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	232.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)	152.56

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	77.02	48.14	28.88
Cash Retained (M)	152.56	152.56	152.56
(-) Cash Required (M)	-77.02	-48.14	-28.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)	75.54	104.42	123.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.21	1,600.21	1,600.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.08
LTM Dividend per Share	0.15	0.15	0.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.07	0.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.21	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-0.22%	0.78%	1.78%
Fair Value	$2.94	$3.83	$4.99
Upside / Downside	-45.62%	-29.09%	-7.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	385.11	388.13	391.17	394.24	397.33	400.45	412.47
Payout Ratio	60.39%	66.31%	72.23%	78.15%	84.08%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	232.55	257.36	282.55	308.12	334.07	360.41	381.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.33%	6.33%	6.33%
Growth Rate	-0.22%	0.78%	1.78%
Year 1 PV (M)	239.64	242.05	244.45
Year 2 PV (M)	244.99	249.92	254.91
Year 3 PV (M)	248.77	256.32	264.03
Year 4 PV (M)	251.15	261.37	271.90
Year 5 PV (M)	252.30	265.20	278.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	8,028.18	8,438.60	8,865.63
Equity Value (M)	9,265.03	9,713.46	10,179.54
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,600.21	1,600.21	1,600.21
Fair Value	$5.79	$6.07	$6.36
Upside / Downside	7.22%	12.41%	17.80%

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Toly Bread Co.,Ltd. (603866.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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