DDM Analysis: 603686.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.54 - $68.13	$24.45
Multi-Stage	$7.33 - $8.00	$7.66
Blended Fair Value	$16.06
Current Price	$21.86
Upside	-26.54%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	9.06%	15.25%	0.30	0.28	0.28	0.40	0.22	0.19	0.19	0.15	0.11	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	4.55%	0.43%	-29.78%	85.60%	12.75%	-1.15%	27.16%	33.19%	2.86%	55.58%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.97%	3.15%	2.85%	3.61%	1.17%	1.39%	1.81%	0.89%	0.46%	0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	143.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	82.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)	60.61

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	28.67	17.92	10.75
Cash Retained (M)	60.61	60.61	60.61
(-) Cash Required (M)	-28.67	-17.92	-10.75
(=) Excess Retained (M)	31.94	42.69	49.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	418.39	418.39	418.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.12
LTM Dividend per Share	0.20	0.20	0.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.08	0.10	0.12
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	7.81%	7.81%	7.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$12.54	$24.45	$68.13
Upside / Downside	-42.63%	11.87%	211.66%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	143.33	152.64	162.57	173.13	184.39	196.37	202.26
Payout Ratio	57.71%	64.17%	70.63%	77.09%	83.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	82.72	97.95	114.82	133.46	154.04	176.73	187.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.81%	7.81%	7.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	90.01	90.86	91.72
Year 2 PV (M)	96.95	98.79	100.66
Year 3 PV (M)	103.55	106.52	109.55
Year 4 PV (M)	109.82	114.04	118.39
Year 5 PV (M)	115.78	121.37	127.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,550.54	2,673.73	2,801.64
Equity Value (M)	3,066.65	3,205.33	3,349.13
Shares Outstanding (M)	418.39	418.39	418.39
Fair Value	$7.33	$7.66	$8.00
Upside / Downside	-66.47%	-64.95%	-63.38%

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FULONGMA Group Co.,Ltd. (603686.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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