DDM Analysis: 603103.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.69 - $0.94	$0.82
Multi-Stage	$2.94 - $3.26	$3.09
Blended Fair Value	$1.96
Current Price	$18.36
Upside	-89.34%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-9.25%	7.46%	0.12	0.00	0.00	0.01	0.19	0.19	0.17	0.14	0.15	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-95.80%	-2.61%	15.88%	18.65%	-4.24%	243.72%	-26.30%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.89%	0.00%	0.00%	0.07%	1.18%	1.43%	0.92%	0.62%	0.93%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	92.24
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	76.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)	16.13

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	18.45	11.53	6.92
Cash Retained (M)	16.13	16.13	16.13
(-) Cash Required (M)	-18.45	-11.53	-6.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-2.31	4.60	9.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	636.61	636.61	636.61
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.12	0.12	0.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.12	0.13	0.13
WACC / Discount Rate	5.51%	5.51%	5.51%
Growth Rate	-9.64%	-8.64%	-7.64%
Fair Value	$0.69	$0.82	$0.94
Upside / Downside	-96.24%	-95.54%	-94.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	92.24	84.26	76.98	70.33	64.25	58.69	60.45
Payout Ratio	82.51%	84.01%	85.51%	87.00%	88.50%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	76.10	70.79	65.82	61.19	56.86	52.82	55.92

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.51%	5.51%	5.51%
Growth Rate	-9.64%	-8.64%	-7.64%
Year 1 PV (M)	66.36	67.09	67.83
Year 2 PV (M)	57.84	59.13	60.43
Year 3 PV (M)	50.40	52.09	53.82
Year 4 PV (M)	43.91	45.88	47.93
Year 5 PV (M)	38.24	40.40	42.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,613.90	1,705.21	1,800.60
Equity Value (M)	1,870.64	1,969.81	2,073.27
Shares Outstanding (M)	636.61	636.61	636.61
Fair Value	$2.94	$3.09	$3.26
Upside / Downside	-84.00%	-83.15%	-82.26%

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Hengdian Entertainment Co.,LTD (603103.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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