DDM Analysis: 601898.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$66.07 - $191.84	$179.78
Multi-Stage	$26.05 - $28.53	$27.27
Blended Fair Value	$103.53
Current Price	$11.36
Upside	811.32%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	58.33%	5.32%	0.78	0.66	0.30	0.13	0.13	0.08	0.44	0.42	0.44	0.46
YoY Growth	-	-	17.30%	119.24%	125.19%	5.51%	62.82%	-82.28%	5.87%	-5.85%	-4.30%	-0.17%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.73%	5.82%	3.82%	1.66%	2.07%	1.95%	8.38%	8.13%	7.21%	9.03%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	12,789.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,162.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	10,626.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,557.92	1,598.70	959.22
Cash Retained (M)	10,626.67	10,626.67	10,626.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,557.92	-1,598.70	-959.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)	8,068.75	9,027.97	9,667.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	13,258.44	13,258.44	13,258.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.68	0.73
LTM Dividend per Share	0.16	0.16	0.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.61	0.68	0.73
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.77	0.84	0.89
WACC / Discount Rate	6.73%	6.73%	6.73%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$66.07	$179.78	$191.84
Upside / Downside	481.58%	1,482.61%	1,588.75%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	12,789.60	13,620.93	14,506.29	15,449.20	16,453.39	17,522.86	18,048.55
Payout Ratio	16.91%	31.53%	46.15%	60.76%	75.38%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,162.94	4,294.59	6,694.22	9,387.65	12,402.95	15,770.58	16,694.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.73%	6.73%	6.73%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,985.92	4,023.70	4,061.48
Year 2 PV (M)	5,766.52	5,876.35	5,987.23
Year 3 PV (M)	7,505.47	7,720.92	7,940.46
Year 4 PV (M)	9,203.50	9,557.44	9,921.49
Year 5 PV (M)	10,861.31	11,385.92	11,930.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	308,063.66	322,943.25	338,392.32
Equity Value (M)	345,386.37	361,507.58	378,233.58
Shares Outstanding (M)	13,258.44	13,258.44	13,258.44
Fair Value	$26.05	$27.27	$28.53
Upside / Downside	129.32%	140.02%	151.12%

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China Coal Energy Company Limited (601898.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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