DDM Analysis: 601872.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$27.71 - $124.70	$64.24
Multi-Stage	$14.68 - $16.04	$15.35
Blended Fair Value	$39.80
Current Price	$8.88
Upside	348.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	24.73%	39.04%	0.49	0.35	0.21	0.16	0.15	0.16	0.11	0.14	0.08	0.04
YoY Growth	-	-	39.80%	67.25%	28.07%	6.04%	-4.93%	44.61%	-21.10%	85.06%	87.89%	125.52%
Dividend Yield	-	-	7.52%	4.40%	2.99%	3.47%	3.55%	3.05%	2.70%	4.59%	1.70%	0.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,038.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,966.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,071.62

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,007.63	629.77	377.86
Cash Retained (M)	2,071.62	2,071.62	2,071.62
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,007.63	-629.77	-377.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,063.99	1,441.85	1,693.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	8,035.12	8,035.12	8,035.12
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.21
LTM Dividend per Share	0.37	0.37	0.37
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.13	0.18	0.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.50	0.55	0.58
WACC / Discount Rate	7.41%	7.41%	7.41%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$27.71	$64.24	$124.70
Upside / Downside	212.10%	623.46%	1,304.26%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,038.16	5,365.64	5,714.40	6,085.84	6,481.42	6,902.71	7,109.79
Payout Ratio	58.88%	65.11%	71.33%	77.55%	83.78%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,966.54	3,493.31	4,076.02	4,719.72	5,429.89	6,212.44	6,576.56

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.41%	7.41%	7.41%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	3,221.79	3,252.32	3,282.86
Year 2 PV (M)	3,467.02	3,533.06	3,599.72
Year 3 PV (M)	3,702.52	3,808.80	3,917.10
Year 4 PV (M)	3,928.54	4,079.63	4,235.02
Year 5 PV (M)	4,145.37	4,345.59	4,553.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)	99,519.67	104,326.51	109,317.31
Equity Value (M)	117,984.90	123,345.90	128,905.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	8,035.12	8,035.12	8,035.12
Fair Value	$14.68	$15.35	$16.04
Upside / Downside	65.36%	72.87%	80.66%

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China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. (601872.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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