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Definitive Analysis

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China Satellite Communications Co., Ltd. (601698.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Telecommunications ServicesSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.40 - $0.57$0.48
Multi-Stage$0.63 - $0.69$0.66
Blended Fair Value$0.57
Current Price$21.31
Upside-97.31%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%2.77%0.030.040.030.020.020.000.050.020.020.03
YoY Growth---42.00%59.30%16.06%8.70%0.00%-100.00%94.49%-3.69%-7.53%37.17%
Dividend Yield--0.13%0.27%0.13%0.20%0.14%0.00%1.17%0.60%0.63%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.37
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)138.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)120.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8732.4219.45
Cash Retained (M)120.45120.45120.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.87-32.42-19.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)68.5888.03101.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,222.724,222.724,222.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.020.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.050.050.06
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.40$0.48$0.57
Upside / Downside-98.11%-97.72%-97.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.37256.78254.21251.67249.15246.66254.06
Payout Ratio53.56%60.85%68.14%75.42%82.71%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)138.92156.24173.21189.82206.08221.99235.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.97%9.97%9.97%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)140.64142.07143.51
Year 2 PV (M)140.34143.22146.13
Year 3 PV (M)138.44142.72147.09
Year 4 PV (M)135.29140.90146.68
Year 5 PV (M)131.18138.01145.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,991.822,095.532,203.53
Equity Value (M)2,677.712,802.462,932.06
Shares Outstanding (M)4,222.724,222.724,222.72
Fair Value$0.63$0.66$0.69
Upside / Downside-97.02%-96.89%-96.74%

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