DDM Analysis: 601607.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$129.23 - $302.94	$283.90
Multi-Stage	$44.31 - $48.52	$46.38
Blended Fair Value	$165.14
Current Price	$17.95
Upside	819.99%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	6.88%	11.16%	0.97	1.07	0.83	0.72	0.65	0.70	0.64	0.47	0.39	0.37
YoY Growth	-	-	-9.48%	28.68%	15.62%	10.65%	-6.41%	9.60%	34.71%	21.24%	4.74%	10.12%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.24%	6.10%	4.10%	2.95%	3.33%	3.57%	2.99%	1.92%	1.67%	2.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	5,645.42
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,342.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)	4,303.41

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	1,129.08	705.68	423.41
Cash Retained (M)	4,303.41	4,303.41	4,303.41
(-) Cash Required (M)	-1,129.08	-705.68	-423.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)	3,174.32	3,597.73	3,880.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,706.08	3,706.08	3,706.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.86	0.97	1.05
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.86	0.97	1.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.22	1.33	1.41
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$129.23	$283.90	$302.94
Upside / Downside	619.95%	1,481.63%	1,587.71%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	5,645.42	6,012.37	6,403.17	6,819.38	7,262.64	7,734.71	7,966.75
Payout Ratio	23.77%	37.02%	50.26%	63.51%	76.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,342.01	2,225.62	3,218.43	4,330.90	5,574.39	6,961.24	7,369.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.49%	6.49%	6.49%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,070.26	2,089.88	2,109.51
Year 2 PV (M)	2,784.79	2,837.83	2,891.37
Year 3 PV (M)	3,485.78	3,585.85	3,687.81
Year 4 PV (M)	4,173.44	4,333.94	4,499.02
Year 5 PV (M)	4,847.95	5,082.10	5,325.22
PV of Terminal Value (M)	146,847.40	153,940.19	161,304.43
Equity Value (M)	164,209.62	171,869.79	179,817.36
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,706.08	3,706.08	3,706.08
Fair Value	$44.31	$46.38	$48.52
Upside / Downside	146.84%	158.36%	170.30%

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Shanghai Pharmaceuticals Holding Co., Ltd (601607.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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