DDM Analysis: 601600.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$13.04 - $24.72	$17.76
Multi-Stage	$13.30 - $14.57	$13.92
Blended Fair Value	$15.84
Current Price	$8.24
Upside	92.24%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	67.98%	-3.54%	0.28	0.20	0.01	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.35
YoY Growth	-	-	35.78%	3,084.85%	-68.80%	-17.04%	19.50%	-14.10%	-18.21%	15.45%	-92.82%	-10.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.70%	2.82%	0.12%	0.35%	0.65%	0.72%	0.54%	0.62%	0.55%	8.05%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	14,255.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,390.89
(=) Cash Retained (M)	11,864.54

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	2,851.09	1,781.93	1,069.16
Cash Retained (M)	11,864.54	11,864.54	11,864.54
(-) Cash Required (M)	-2,851.09	-1,781.93	-1,069.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)	9,013.46	10,082.61	10,795.38
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	17,081.14	17,081.14	17,081.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.59	0.63
LTM Dividend per Share	0.14	0.14	0.14
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.53	0.59	0.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.67	0.73	0.77
WACC / Discount Rate	8.55%	8.55%	8.55%
Growth Rate	3.26%	4.26%	5.26%
Fair Value	$13.04	$17.76	$24.72
Upside / Downside	58.23%	115.49%	199.94%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	14,255.44	14,862.53	15,495.49	16,155.40	16,843.41	17,560.72	18,087.54
Payout Ratio	16.77%	31.42%	46.06%	60.71%	75.35%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,390.89	4,669.43	7,137.70	9,807.73	12,692.24	15,804.65	16,730.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.55%	8.55%	8.55%
Growth Rate	3.26%	4.26%	5.26%
Year 1 PV (M)	4,260.52	4,301.78	4,343.04
Year 2 PV (M)	5,942.31	6,057.97	6,174.73
Year 3 PV (M)	7,450.14	7,668.70	7,891.48
Year 4 PV (M)	8,796.97	9,142.72	9,498.57
Year 5 PV (M)	9,994.89	10,488.33	11,001.07
PV of Terminal Value (M)	190,764.77	200,182.65	209,968.87
Equity Value (M)	227,209.61	237,842.15	248,877.77
Shares Outstanding (M)	17,081.14	17,081.14	17,081.14
Fair Value	$13.30	$13.92	$14.57
Upside / Downside	61.43%	68.98%	76.82%

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Aluminum Corporation of China Limited (601600.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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