DDM Analysis: 601456.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$24.19 - $78.29	$73.37
Multi-Stage	$10.62 - $11.60	$11.10
Blended Fair Value	$42.23
Current Price	$11.17
Upside	278.11%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.42%	20.95%	0.09	0.17	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.06	0.17	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-47.33%	169.59%	-0.77%	0.00%	-100.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	-65.00%	624.72%	75.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.88%	1.50%	0.60%	0.48%	0.00%	0.35%	0.00%	0.97%	2.77%	0.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,764.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,212.24
(=) Cash Retained (M)	552.07

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	352.86	220.54	132.32
Cash Retained (M)	552.07	552.07	552.07
(-) Cash Required (M)	-352.86	-220.54	-132.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)	199.21	331.53	419.75
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,481.86	4,481.86	4,481.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.07	0.09
LTM Dividend per Share	0.27	0.27	0.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.04	0.07	0.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.31	0.34	0.36
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$24.19	$73.37	$78.29
Upside / Downside	116.59%	556.83%	600.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,764.30	1,878.98	2,001.12	2,131.19	2,269.72	2,417.25	2,489.77
Payout Ratio	68.71%	72.97%	77.23%	81.48%	85.74%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,212.24	1,371.04	1,545.37	1,736.57	1,946.10	2,175.52	2,303.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.87%	6.87%	6.87%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,270.82	1,282.87	1,294.91
Year 2 PV (M)	1,327.70	1,352.99	1,378.52
Year 3 PV (M)	1,382.91	1,422.61	1,463.06
Year 4 PV (M)	1,436.48	1,491.72	1,548.54
Year 5 PV (M)	1,488.44	1,560.34	1,634.98
PV of Terminal Value (M)	40,680.80	42,645.69	44,685.79
Equity Value (M)	47,587.15	49,756.22	52,005.80
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,481.86	4,481.86	4,481.86
Fair Value	$10.62	$11.10	$11.60
Upside / Downside	-4.94%	-0.61%	3.88%

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Guolian Minsheng Securities Co., Ltd. (601456.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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