DDM Analysis: 601177.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$11.99 - $25.52	$17.04
Multi-Stage	$9.43 - $10.32	$9.86
Blended Fair Value	$13.45
Current Price	$18.35
Upside	-26.68%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	45.74%	-2.26%	0.13	0.17	0.11	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.17	0.20	0.17	0.16
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.12%	59.75%	-11.53%	3.86%	482.75%	-88.58%	-13.90%	15.44%	7.19%	-0.50%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.73%	2.00%	1.03%	1.46%	1.46%	0.26%	1.22%	2.59%	1.49%	1.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	258.96
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	24.63
(=) Cash Retained (M)	234.34

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	51.79	32.37	19.42
Cash Retained (M)	234.34	234.34	234.34
(-) Cash Required (M)	-51.79	-32.37	-19.42
(=) Excess Retained (M)	182.54	201.97	214.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	404.44	404.44	404.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.45	0.50	0.53
LTM Dividend per Share	0.06	0.06	0.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.45	0.50	0.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.51	0.56	0.59
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	4.84%	5.84%	6.84%
Fair Value	$11.99	$17.04	$25.52
Upside / Downside	-34.66%	-7.12%	39.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	258.96	274.08	290.09	307.02	324.95	343.92	354.24
Payout Ratio	9.51%	25.61%	41.71%	57.80%	73.90%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	24.63	70.19	120.98	177.47	240.14	309.53	327.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.32%	9.32%	9.32%
Growth Rate	4.84%	5.84%	6.84%
Year 1 PV (M)	63.60	64.20	64.81
Year 2 PV (M)	99.33	101.24	103.16
Year 3 PV (M)	132.03	135.85	139.73
Year 4 PV (M)	161.89	168.15	174.60
Year 5 PV (M)	189.07	198.26	207.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,167.87	3,321.86	3,481.78
Equity Value (M)	3,813.79	3,989.56	4,171.89
Shares Outstanding (M)	404.44	404.44	404.44
Fair Value	$9.43	$9.86	$10.32
Upside / Downside	-48.61%	-46.24%	-43.79%

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Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group Co., Ltd. (601177.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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