DDM Analysis: 600833.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$5.03 - $13.57	$7.74
Multi-Stage	$3.35 - $3.67	$3.51
Blended Fair Value	$5.62
Current Price	$12.70
Upside	-55.74%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	15.19%	10.18%	0.13	0.19	0.07	0.10	0.07	0.06	0.06	0.07	0.06	0.05
YoY Growth	-	-	-32.39%	178.57%	-30.42%	34.14%	15.38%	8.35%	-14.29%	16.66%	20.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	1.06%	1.75%	0.59%	0.86%	0.74%	0.72%	0.51%	0.54%	0.29%	0.30%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	47.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	44.89

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	9.46	5.91	3.55
Cash Retained (M)	44.89	44.89	44.89
(-) Cash Required (M)	-9.46	-5.91	-3.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	35.44	38.98	41.35
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	223.31	223.31	223.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.17	0.19
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.16	0.17	0.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.17	0.19	0.20
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$5.03	$7.74	$13.57
Upside / Downside	-60.37%	-39.09%	6.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	47.30	50.37	53.64	57.13	60.84	64.80	66.74
Payout Ratio	5.08%	22.06%	39.05%	56.03%	73.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2.40	11.11	20.95	32.01	44.43	58.32	61.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.05%	9.05%	9.05%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	10.09	10.19	10.29
Year 2 PV (M)	17.28	17.61	17.95
Year 3 PV (M)	23.99	24.68	25.39
Year 4 PV (M)	30.25	31.41	32.61
Year 5 PV (M)	36.07	37.81	39.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)	631.03	661.51	693.15
Equity Value (M)	748.72	783.22	819.00
Shares Outstanding (M)	223.31	223.31	223.31
Fair Value	$3.35	$3.51	$3.67
Upside / Downside	-73.60%	-72.38%	-71.12%

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Shanghai No.1 Pharmacy Co., Ltd. (600833.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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