Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanghai Dazhong Public Utilities(Group) Co.,Ltd. (600635.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated GasSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.30 - $3.86$2.99
Multi-Stage$6.55 - $7.22$6.88
Blended Fair Value$4.93
Current Price$5.87
Upside-15.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.00%0.49%0.120.130.150.160.170.200.160.140.110.08
YoY Growth---8.57%-15.32%-4.06%-6.95%-14.58%23.81%18.61%26.62%38.59%-31.00%
Dividend Yield--3.17%4.47%5.11%4.57%4.30%5.01%2.14%2.79%1.70%1.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)582.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)154.97
(=) Cash Retained (M)427.61
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)116.5272.8243.69
Cash Retained (M)427.61427.61427.61
(-) Cash Required (M)-116.52-72.82-43.69
(=) Excess Retained (M)311.09354.79383.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,953.532,953.532,953.53
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.120.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.160.170.18
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Fair Value$2.30$2.99$3.86
Upside / Downside-60.77%-49.11%-34.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)582.58579.59576.62573.67570.73567.80584.84
Payout Ratio26.60%39.28%51.96%64.64%77.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)154.97227.67299.62370.82441.29511.02540.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-1.51%-0.51%0.49%
Year 1 PV (M)214.17216.34218.52
Year 2 PV (M)265.14270.55276.01
Year 3 PV (M)308.69318.18327.88
Year 4 PV (M)345.56359.81374.50
Year 5 PV (M)376.44395.94416.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,827.0618,750.6719,712.17
Equity Value (M)19,337.0520,311.5021,325.32
Shares Outstanding (M)2,953.532,953.532,953.53
Fair Value$6.55$6.88$7.22
Upside / Downside11.54%17.16%23.00%

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