Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Henan Zhongfu Industrial Co.,Ltd (600595.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: AluminumSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.83 - $65.80$26.21
Multi-Stage$7.03 - $7.69$7.35
Blended Fair Value$16.78
Current Price$5.19
Upside223.32%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-11.50%-13.18%0.080.080.050.050.060.140.250.330.320.32
YoY Growth--2.81%40.38%10.59%-22.76%-55.95%-42.80%-23.23%4.23%-1.67%-0.48%
Dividend Yield--1.91%2.17%1.68%1.19%2.06%8.07%9.35%7.98%5.81%5.97%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,287.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)228.14
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,058.94
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)257.42160.8996.53
Cash Retained (M)1,058.941,058.941,058.94
(-) Cash Required (M)-257.42-160.89-96.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)801.52898.05962.41
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)3,890.003,890.003,890.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.230.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$12.83$26.21$65.80
Upside / Downside147.21%404.95%1,167.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,287.081,370.741,459.841,554.731,655.791,763.411,816.32
Payout Ratio17.73%32.18%46.64%61.09%75.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)228.14441.11680.80949.791,250.871,587.071,680.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.68%7.68%7.68%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)405.82409.66413.51
Year 2 PV (M)576.22587.19598.27
Year 3 PV (M)739.56760.79782.42
Year 4 PV (M)896.06930.52965.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,045.941,096.461,148.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,676.5824,820.1726,007.52
Equity Value (M)27,340.1728,604.7929,916.60
Shares Outstanding (M)3,890.003,890.003,890.00
Fair Value$7.03$7.35$7.69
Upside / Downside35.42%41.68%48.18%

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