Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Yunnan Chihong Zinc & Germanium Co., Ltd. (600497.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $3.03$2.48
Multi-Stage$4.02 - $4.41$4.21
Blended Fair Value$3.35
Current Price$6.43
Upside-47.96%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS17.64%-5.35%0.160.140.160.110.200.070.150.160.230.25
YoY Growth--12.47%-11.86%45.81%-44.04%178.60%-54.17%-5.19%-30.39%-7.36%-8.64%
Dividend Yield--2.90%2.55%3.09%2.13%4.07%1.96%2.79%2.53%3.34%4.50%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,142.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)743.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)399.60
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)228.52142.8385.70
Cash Retained (M)399.60399.60399.60
(-) Cash Required (M)-228.52-142.83-85.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.08256.77313.90
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,067.495,067.495,067.49
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.050.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.180.200.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate-1.71%-0.71%0.29%
Fair Value$1.99$2.48$3.03
Upside / Downside-69.01%-61.43%-52.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,142.601,134.481,126.421,118.421,110.471,102.581,135.66
Payout Ratio65.03%70.02%75.02%80.01%85.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)743.00794.39845.00894.86943.96992.321,050.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.19%7.19%7.19%
Growth Rate-1.71%-0.71%0.29%
Year 1 PV (M)733.65741.12748.58
Year 2 PV (M)720.73735.47750.36
Year 3 PV (M)704.90726.64748.81
Year 4 PV (M)686.73715.11744.36
Year 5 PV (M)666.72701.33737.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,853.6617,728.6318,639.57
Equity Value (M)20,366.4021,348.3022,369.05
Shares Outstanding (M)5,067.495,067.495,067.49
Fair Value$4.02$4.21$4.41
Upside / Downside-37.50%-34.48%-31.35%

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