Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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North Navigation Control Technology Co.,Ltd. (600435.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.67 - $2.60$2.10
Multi-Stage$1.96 - $2.14$2.05
Blended Fair Value$2.08
Current Price$14.92
Upside-86.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS50.03%0.58%0.040.040.030.030.000.010.030.040.040.04
YoY Growth--0.27%54.42%-10.45%485.76%-6.42%-83.92%-12.13%2.37%-2.54%-1.10%
Dividend Yield--0.37%0.43%0.24%0.34%0.06%0.07%0.30%0.33%0.22%0.31%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)257.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.20
(=) Cash Retained (M)227.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.4632.1619.30
Cash Retained (M)227.11227.11227.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.46-32.16-19.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)175.65194.94207.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,506.091,506.091,506.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.130.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.140.150.16
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate1.68%2.68%3.68%
Fair Value$1.67$2.10$2.60
Upside / Downside-88.78%-85.90%-82.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)257.30264.21271.30278.58286.06293.73302.54
Payout Ratio11.74%27.39%43.04%58.69%74.35%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.2072.36116.77163.51212.67264.36279.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.98%9.98%9.98%
Growth Rate1.68%2.68%3.68%
Year 1 PV (M)65.1565.8066.44
Year 2 PV (M)94.6796.5498.43
Year 3 PV (M)119.35122.91126.53
Year 4 PV (M)139.78145.36151.10
Year 5 PV (M)156.44164.28172.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,371.972,490.922,614.59
Equity Value (M)2,947.353,085.803,229.53
Shares Outstanding (M)1,506.091,506.091,506.09
Fair Value$1.96$2.05$2.14
Upside / Downside-86.88%-86.27%-85.63%

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