DDM Analysis: 600233.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$96.24 - $230.19	$215.72
Multi-Stage	$33.67 - $36.85	$35.23
Blended Fair Value	$125.48
Current Price	$18.35
Upside	583.79%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	21.55%	47.40%	0.35	0.27	0.19	0.17	0.15	0.13	0.10	0.12	0.09	0.34
YoY Growth	-	-	27.86%	43.85%	13.18%	12.91%	12.90%	35.87%	-21.57%	34.51%	-73.23%	4,654.60%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.75%	1.74%	1.04%	0.97%	1.33%	1.14%	0.70%	0.75%	0.40%	2.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,958.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	1,295.40
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,663.34

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	791.75	494.84	296.91
Cash Retained (M)	2,663.34	2,663.34	2,663.34
(-) Cash Required (M)	-791.75	-494.84	-296.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,871.60	2,168.50	2,366.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,420.23	3,420.23	3,420.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.63	0.69
LTM Dividend per Share	0.38	0.38	0.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.55	0.63	0.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.93	1.01	1.07
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$96.24	$215.72	$230.19
Upside / Downside	424.48%	1,075.58%	1,154.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,958.74	4,216.06	4,490.10	4,781.96	5,092.79	5,423.82	5,586.53
Payout Ratio	32.72%	44.18%	55.63%	67.09%	78.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	1,295.40	1,862.57	2,498.00	3,208.17	4,000.10	4,881.43	5,167.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.52%	6.52%	6.52%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,732.22	1,748.64	1,765.06
Year 2 PV (M)	2,160.61	2,201.76	2,243.30
Year 3 PV (M)	2,580.67	2,654.75	2,730.24
Year 4 PV (M)	2,992.53	3,107.62	3,225.99
Year 5 PV (M)	3,396.31	3,560.35	3,730.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)	102,285.29	107,225.71	112,355.21
Equity Value (M)	115,147.63	120,498.83	126,050.47
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,420.23	3,420.23	3,420.23
Fair Value	$33.67	$35.23	$36.85
Upside / Downside	83.47%	92.00%	100.84%

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YTO Express Group Co.,Ltd. (600233.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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