DDM Analysis: 600196.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$209.10 - $246.35	$230.87
Multi-Stage	$71.53 - $78.44	$74.92
Blended Fair Value	$152.90
Current Price	$29.84
Upside	412.38%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	20.26%	12.68%	0.78	0.42	0.54	0.42	0.38	0.31	0.37	0.33	0.28	0.24
YoY Growth	-	-	83.65%	-21.88%	30.14%	10.24%	22.22%	-15.95%	11.53%	17.93%	14.43%	3.68%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.13%	1.80%	1.67%	0.78%	0.95%	0.94%	1.21%	0.74%	0.99%	1.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	3,282.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	957.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,324.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	656.51	410.32	246.19
Cash Retained (M)	2,324.90	2,324.90	2,324.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-656.51	-410.32	-246.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,668.39	1,914.58	2,078.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,649.91	2,649.91	2,649.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.72	0.78
LTM Dividend per Share	0.36	0.36	0.36
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.63	0.72	0.78
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.99	1.08	1.15
WACC / Discount Rate	4.81%	4.81%	4.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$209.10	$230.87	$246.35
Upside / Downside	600.73%	673.69%	725.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	3,282.54	3,495.90	3,723.14	3,965.14	4,222.87	4,497.36	4,632.28
Payout Ratio	29.17%	41.34%	53.50%	65.67%	77.83%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	957.64	1,445.17	1,992.04	2,603.89	3,286.86	4,047.63	4,284.86

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	4.81%	4.81%	4.81%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,365.90	1,378.85	1,391.79
Year 2 PV (M)	1,779.49	1,813.39	1,847.60
Year 3 PV (M)	2,198.47	2,261.58	2,325.89
Year 4 PV (M)	2,622.89	2,723.76	2,827.51
Year 5 PV (M)	3,052.80	3,200.25	3,353.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)	178,534.17	187,157.44	196,110.74
Equity Value (M)	189,553.73	198,535.27	207,856.88
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,649.91	2,649.91	2,649.91
Fair Value	$71.53	$74.92	$78.44
Upside / Downside	139.72%	151.08%	162.87%

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Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. (600196.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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