DDM Analysis: 600104.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.89 - $1.16	$1.03
Multi-Stage	$1.40 - $1.53	$1.47
Blended Fair Value	$1.25
Current Price	$17.12
Upside	-92.71%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-14.61%	-5.44%	0.66	0.61	0.69	0.81	1.09	1.46	2.02	1.81	1.36	1.30
YoY Growth	-	-	8.99%	-11.55%	-15.23%	-25.34%	-25.60%	-27.86%	11.51%	33.41%	4.37%	12.45%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.20%	3.98%	4.79%	4.77%	5.52%	7.12%	7.61%	5.34%	5.36%	6.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,859.81
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,145.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)	714.46

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	571.96	357.48	214.49
Cash Retained (M)	714.46	714.46	714.46
(-) Cash Required (M)	-571.96	-357.48	-214.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)	142.50	356.98	499.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	11,414.20	11,414.20	11,414.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.03	0.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.20	0.22	0.23
WACC / Discount Rate	13.51%	13.51%	13.51%
Growth Rate	-7.44%	-6.44%	-5.44%
Fair Value	$0.89	$1.03	$1.16
Upside / Downside	-94.83%	-93.99%	-93.25%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,859.81	2,675.72	2,503.48	2,342.32	2,191.54	2,050.46	2,111.98
Payout Ratio	75.02%	78.01%	81.01%	84.01%	87.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,145.35	2,087.43	2,028.07	1,967.71	1,906.71	1,845.42	1,953.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	13.51%	13.51%	13.51%
Growth Rate	-7.44%	-6.44%	-5.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	1,819.27	1,838.92	1,858.58
Year 2 PV (M)	1,540.47	1,573.94	1,607.76
Year 3 PV (M)	1,302.61	1,345.29	1,388.89
Year 4 PV (M)	1,100.08	1,148.40	1,198.29
Year 5 PV (M)	927.94	979.16	1,032.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)	9,343.26	9,858.98	10,397.23
Equity Value (M)	16,033.63	16,744.68	17,483.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	11,414.20	11,414.20	11,414.20
Fair Value	$1.40	$1.47	$1.53
Upside / Downside	-91.79%	-91.43%	-91.05%

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SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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