Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Projections DCF DDM EPV Multiples Valuations

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Mode

Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Shanghai International Port (Group) Co., Ltd. (600018.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.04 - $9.38$7.59
Multi-Stage$7.29 - $7.99$7.63
Blended Fair Value$7.61
Current Price$5.45
Upside39.65%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.72%5.61%0.260.190.240.170.190.200.230.200.190.23
YoY Growth--34.92%-21.38%40.09%-9.33%-6.51%-12.65%18.30%4.17%-16.94%53.23%
Dividend Yield--4.44%3.53%4.38%3.17%3.99%4.56%3.17%2.80%3.22%4.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)14,416.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,940.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)12,475.39
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,883.261,802.041,081.22
Cash Retained (M)12,475.3912,475.3912,475.39
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,883.26-1,802.04-1,081.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)9,592.1310,673.3511,394.17
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
LTM Dividend per Share0.080.080.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.410.460.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.500.540.57
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Fair Value$6.04$7.59$9.38
Upside / Downside10.90%39.22%72.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)14,416.3014,767.9115,128.0915,497.0615,875.0216,262.2116,750.07
Payout Ratio13.46%28.77%44.08%59.39%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,940.914,248.826,668.169,202.9811,857.4814,635.9915,493.82

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.76%9.76%9.76%
Growth Rate1.44%2.44%3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)3,833.113,870.903,908.69
Year 2 PV (M)5,427.155,534.685,643.26
Year 3 PV (M)6,757.366,959.187,164.98
Year 4 PV (M)7,854.608,168.938,492.61
Year 5 PV (M)8,746.559,186.259,643.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)136,905.66143,788.21150,944.82
Equity Value (M)169,524.42177,508.16185,797.83
Shares Outstanding (M)23,252.4023,252.4023,252.40
Fair Value$7.29$7.63$7.99
Upside / Downside33.77%40.07%46.61%

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