Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nippon Paint Holdings Co., Ltd. (4612.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5,950.47 - $13,840.62$12,970.69
Multi-Stage$2,027.97 - $2,220.80$2,122.61
Blended Fair Value$7,546.65
Current Price$1,010.00
Upside647.19%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162016
DPS19.53%19.90%15.0012.0010.008.146.156.146.015.465.463.69
YoY Growth--25.00%19.99%22.83%32.41%0.04%2.29%9.99%0.00%48.15%50.99%
Dividend Yield--1.34%1.11%0.81%0.75%0.39%0.54%0.66%0.70%0.70%0.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)163,471.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37,575.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)125,896.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)32,694.2020,433.8812,260.33
Cash Retained (M)125,896.00125,896.00125,896.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-32,694.20-20,433.88-12,260.33
(=) Excess Retained (M)93,201.80105,462.13113,635.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,348.902,348.902,348.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share39.6844.9048.38
LTM Dividend per Share16.0016.0016.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share39.6844.9048.38
(=) Adjusted Dividend55.6860.9064.37
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5,950.47$12,970.69$13,840.62
Upside / Downside489.16%1,184.23%1,270.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)163,471.00174,096.62185,412.89197,464.73210,299.94223,969.44230,688.52
Payout Ratio22.99%36.39%49.79%63.19%76.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37,575.0063,351.2992,319.74124,786.44161,083.75201,572.49213,386.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)58,933.3759,491.9860,050.59
Year 2 PV (M)79,892.5381,414.2682,950.35
Year 3 PV (M)100,458.06103,341.85106,280.31
Year 4 PV (M)120,635.45125,274.75130,046.59
Year 5 PV (M)140,430.12147,212.95154,255.37
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,263,151.574,469,063.394,682,855.93
Equity Value (M)4,763,501.114,985,799.185,216,439.14
Shares Outstanding (M)2,348.902,348.902,348.90
Fair Value$2,027.97$2,122.61$2,220.80
Upside / Downside100.79%110.16%119.88%

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