DDM Analysis: 4030.SR

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$48.55 - $107.74	$70.03
Multi-Stage	$35.03 - $38.26	$36.61
Blended Fair Value	$53.32
Current Price	$24.48
Upside	117.81%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.37%	2.63%	0.52	0.31	0.00	1.00	0.98	1.00	0.74	1.25	1.25	0.44
YoY Growth	-	-	65.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	1.99%	-1.73%	34.81%	-40.64%	-0.02%	184.83%	10.08%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.10%	1.47%	0.00%	6.59%	5.91%	6.53%	5.76%	9.31%	8.23%	2.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,923.54
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	406.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,517.49

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	384.71	240.44	144.27
Cash Retained (M)	1,517.49	1,517.49	1,517.49
(-) Cash Required (M)	-384.71	-240.44	-144.27
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,132.78	1,277.04	1,373.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	784.41	784.41	784.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.44	1.63	1.75
LTM Dividend per Share	0.52	0.52	0.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.44	1.63	1.75
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.96	2.15	2.27
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$48.55	$70.03	$107.74
Upside / Downside	98.31%	186.06%	340.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,923.54	2,048.57	2,181.73	2,323.54	2,474.57	2,635.42	2,714.48
Payout Ratio	21.11%	34.89%	48.67%	62.44%	76.22%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	406.06	714.70	1,061.76	1,450.91	1,886.17	2,371.88	2,510.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.76%	9.76%	9.76%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	645.02	651.13	657.24
Year 2 PV (M)	864.80	881.28	897.90
Year 3 PV (M)	1,066.54	1,097.16	1,128.36
Year 4 PV (M)	1,251.31	1,299.43	1,348.93
Year 5 PV (M)	1,420.11	1,488.70	1,559.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)	22,228.38	23,302.01	24,416.74
Equity Value (M)	27,476.16	28,719.72	30,009.10
Shares Outstanding (M)	784.41	784.41	784.41
Fair Value	$35.03	$36.61	$38.26
Upside / Downside	43.09%	49.56%	56.28%

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The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia (4030.SR)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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