Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nissan Chemical Corporation (4021.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32,742.47 - $65,921.70$61,778.29
Multi-Stage$10,254.27 - $11,219.61$10,728.09
Blended Fair Value$36,253.19
Current Price$4,401.00
Upside723.75%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS12.91%16.77%165.80167.93146.81113.0799.6390.3582.7566.2556.1445.83
YoY Growth---1.27%14.38%29.84%13.49%10.27%9.19%24.90%18.01%22.51%30.22%
Dividend Yield--3.77%3.39%2.38%1.81%1.83%1.64%1.67%1.28%1.51%1.54%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)45,345.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)23,825.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)21,520.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,069.005,668.133,400.88
Cash Retained (M)21,520.0021,520.0021,520.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,069.00-5,668.13-3,400.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)12,451.0015,851.8818,119.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)136.80136.80136.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share91.02115.88132.45
LTM Dividend per Share174.16174.16174.16
(+) Excess Retained per Share91.02115.88132.45
(=) Adjusted Dividend265.18290.04306.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32,742.47$61,778.29$65,921.70
Upside / Downside643.98%1,303.73%1,397.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)45,345.0048,292.4351,431.4354,774.4858,334.8262,126.5863,990.38
Payout Ratio52.54%60.03%67.52%75.02%82.51%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)23,825.0028,991.5434,729.0641,089.9848,131.0855,913.9259,191.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)27,003.4027,259.3627,515.31
Year 2 PV (M)30,129.2030,703.0731,282.36
Year 3 PV (M)33,203.0234,156.1635,127.37
Year 4 PV (M)36,225.5237,618.6539,051.58
Year 5 PV (M)39,197.3041,090.5543,056.25
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,237,010.031,296,758.071,358,792.82
Equity Value (M)1,402,768.471,467,585.861,534,825.70
Shares Outstanding (M)136.80136.80136.80
Fair Value$10,254.27$10,728.09$11,219.61
Upside / Downside133.00%143.76%154.93%

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