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Definitive Analysis

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Mouwasat Medical Services Company (4002.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$239.89 - $750.73$703.54
Multi-Stage$101.89 - $111.42$106.57
Blended Fair Value$405.06
Current Price$73.65
Upside449.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS14.87%13.35%1.751.501.371.251.000.870.750.620.500.50
YoY Growth--16.67%9.09%10.00%25.00%14.29%16.67%20.00%25.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.36%1.09%1.17%1.18%1.27%2.09%1.87%1.42%1.40%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)755.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)400.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)355.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)151.1094.4456.66
Cash Retained (M)355.51355.51355.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-151.10-94.44-56.66
(=) Excess Retained (M)204.41261.07298.85
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)200.14200.14200.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.021.301.49
LTM Dividend per Share2.002.002.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.021.301.49
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.023.303.49
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$239.89$703.54$750.73
Upside / Downside225.71%855.25%919.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)755.51804.62856.92912.62971.941,035.111,066.17
Payout Ratio52.94%60.36%67.77%75.18%82.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)400.00485.63580.70686.08802.71931.60986.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)450.32454.59458.86
Year 2 PV (M)499.33508.84518.44
Year 3 PV (M)547.05562.76578.76
Year 4 PV (M)593.51616.34639.81
Year 5 PV (M)638.73669.58701.61
PV of Terminal Value (M)17,663.0518,516.1819,401.97
Equity Value (M)20,392.0021,328.2922,299.45
Shares Outstanding (M)200.14200.14200.14
Fair Value$101.89$106.57$111.42
Upside / Downside38.34%44.69%51.28%

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