DDM Analysis: 3613.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.94 - $13.80	$10.45
Multi-Stage	$14.00 - $15.37	$14.67
Blended Fair Value	$12.56
Current Price	$8.67
Upside	44.88%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-19.06%	15.32%	0.33	0.33	0.53	0.24	0.23	0.95	0.19	0.16	0.13	0.10
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	-37.74%	120.83%	4.34%	-75.79%	400.00%	18.75%	23.08%	30.00%	26.07%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.87%	3.59%	3.92%	2.21%	2.17%	8.33%	1.30%	1.09%	1.25%	1.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	515.36
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	292.99
(=) Cash Retained (M)	222.38

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	103.07	64.42	38.65
Cash Retained (M)	222.38	222.38	222.38
(-) Cash Required (M)	-103.07	-64.42	-38.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)	119.30	157.96	183.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	837.10	837.10	837.10
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.19	0.22
LTM Dividend per Share	0.35	0.35	0.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.19	0.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.49	0.54	0.57
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	0.38%	1.38%	2.38%
Fair Value	$7.94	$10.45	$13.80
Upside / Downside	-8.38%	20.58%	59.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	515.36	522.49	529.71	537.04	544.46	551.99	568.55
Payout Ratio	56.85%	63.48%	70.11%	76.74%	83.37%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	292.99	331.68	371.38	412.12	453.92	496.79	525.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.61%	6.61%	6.61%
Growth Rate	0.38%	1.38%	2.38%
Year 1 PV (M)	308.05	311.12	314.19
Year 2 PV (M)	320.36	326.78	333.25
Year 3 PV (M)	330.18	340.15	350.31
Year 4 PV (M)	337.77	351.43	365.50
Year 5 PV (M)	343.34	360.78	378.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,076.39	10,588.39	11,121.00
Equity Value (M)	11,716.09	12,278.65	12,863.18
Shares Outstanding (M)	837.10	837.10	837.10
Fair Value	$14.00	$14.67	$15.37
Upside / Downside	61.43%	69.18%	77.24%

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Beijing Tong Ren Tang Chinese Medicine Company Limited (3613.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener