DDM Analysis: 3318.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$0.72 - $1.08	$0.89
Multi-Stage	$1.32 - $1.45	$1.38
Blended Fair Value	$1.14
Current Price	$1.59
Upside	-28.55%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	52.94%	0.00%	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.03	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	-100.00%	802.76%	4.83%	31.47%	-28.35%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.37%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%	2.43%	0.32%	0.15%	0.19%	0.18%	0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	95.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	17.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)	77.91

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	19.07	11.92	7.15
Cash Retained (M)	77.91	77.91	77.91
(-) Cash Required (M)	-19.07	-11.92	-7.15
(=) Excess Retained (M)	58.84	65.99	70.76
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,080.26	1,080.26	1,080.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.05	0.06	0.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.07	0.08	0.08
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Growth Rate	-1.86%	-0.86%	0.14%
Fair Value	$0.72	$0.89	$1.08
Upside / Downside	-54.51%	-43.89%	-32.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	95.34	94.52	93.71	92.90	92.11	91.31	94.05
Payout Ratio	18.28%	32.62%	46.97%	61.31%	75.66%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	17.43	30.83	44.01	56.96	69.68	82.18	87.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.72%	7.72%	7.72%
Growth Rate	-1.86%	-0.86%	0.14%
Year 1 PV (M)	28.33	28.62	28.91
Year 2 PV (M)	37.17	37.93	38.70
Year 3 PV (M)	44.20	45.57	46.96
Year 4 PV (M)	49.69	51.75	53.87
Year 5 PV (M)	53.86	56.66	59.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,207.29	1,270.06	1,335.42
Equity Value (M)	1,420.54	1,490.59	1,563.43
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,080.26	1,080.26	1,080.26
Fair Value	$1.32	$1.38	$1.45
Upside / Downside	-17.30%	-13.22%	-8.98%

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EXPD	Expeditors International of Washington, Inc.	0.99%	$1.50	24.32%
LISOX	Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares	0.99%	$0.13	36.87%
MXC	Mexco Energy Corporation	0.99%	$0.10	12.25%
NIC	Nicolet Bankshares, Inc.	0.99%	$1.19	12.58%
PAYC	Paycom Software, Inc.	0.99%	$1.51	18.80%
RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
EVR	Evercore Inc.	0.97%	$3.41	27.02%
LSBK	Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc.	0.96%	$0.14	24.34%
0ITL.L	Arthur J. Gallagher & Co.	0.95%	$2.42	39.43%
0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
NNI	Nelnet, Inc.	0.88%	$1.14	9.52%
PFSI	PennyMac Financial Services, Inc.	0.88%	$1.16	12.49%
SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
BYD	Boyd Gaming Corporation	0.87%	$0.75	3.22%
ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
BCO	The Brink's Company	0.86%	$1.00	24.81%
HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

Financial Statements

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China Boton Group Company Limited (3318.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener