Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Golden Eagle Retail Group Limited (3308.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Department StoresSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$193.86 - $228.72$214.20
Multi-Stage$1,501.02 - $1,660.13$1,578.97
Blended Fair Value$896.58
Current Price$6.03
Upside14,768.70%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2022202120202019201820172016201520142013
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.470.350.280.440.160.280.300.310.21
YoY Growth---100.00%33.11%24.29%-35.90%175.80%-43.42%-6.60%-4.23%47.99%-3.78%
Dividend Yield--0.00%8.64%5.91%3.63%5.99%2.02%2.85%3.85%4.52%2.66%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,052.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)195.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,857.11
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)410.52256.57153.94
Cash Retained (M)1,857.111,857.111,857.11
(-) Cash Required (M)-410.52-256.57-153.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,446.591,600.531,703.16
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,660.211,660.211,660.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.961.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$193.86$214.20$228.72
Upside / Downside3,114.91%3,452.19%3,693.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,052.592,032.062,011.741,991.621,971.711,951.992,010.55
Payout Ratio9.52%25.62%41.71%57.81%73.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)195.48520.59839.181,151.351,457.181,756.791,859.76

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-40.89%-40.89%-40.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)871.76880.65889.55
Year 2 PV (M)2,353.172,401.442,450.19
Year 3 PV (M)5,406.315,573.515,744.11
Year 4 PV (M)11,457.9811,932.8612,422.35
Year 5 PV (M)23,131.9324,336.4725,590.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,448,772.162,576,285.412,709,056.11
Equity Value (M)2,491,993.322,621,410.342,756,152.99
Shares Outstanding (M)1,660.211,660.211,660.21
Fair Value$1,501.02$1,578.97$1,660.13
Upside / Downside24,792.46%26,085.20%27,431.15%

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