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Definitive Analysis

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NanJing Research Institute of Surveying, Mapping & Geotechnical Investigation, Co.Ltd (300826.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Engineering & ConstructionSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.62 - $0.88$0.75
Multi-Stage$0.99 - $1.08$1.03
Blended Fair Value$0.89
Current Price$17.84
Upside-95.00%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-3.46%0.00%0.100.180.210.370.000.120.100.030.170.07
YoY Growth---45.27%-13.33%-44.00%35,052.82%-99.10%18.75%220.00%-82.13%154.40%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.63%1.31%1.47%2.68%0.01%0.65%0.55%0.17%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)15.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.47
(=) Cash Retained (M)6.08
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3.111.941.17
Cash Retained (M)6.086.086.08
(-) Cash Required (M)-3.11-1.94-1.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)2.974.144.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)161.50161.50161.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.060.060.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate10.10%10.10%10.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$0.62$0.75$0.88
Upside / Downside-96.50%-95.79%-95.05%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)15.5515.4015.2415.0914.9414.7915.23
Payout Ratio60.89%66.71%72.53%78.36%84.18%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.4710.2711.0611.8212.5713.3114.09

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.10%10.10%10.10%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)9.239.339.42
Year 2 PV (M)8.949.129.31
Year 3 PV (M)8.598.869.13
Year 4 PV (M)8.228.568.91
Year 5 PV (M)7.828.238.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)116.68122.76129.08
Equity Value (M)159.49166.85174.51
Shares Outstanding (M)161.50161.50161.50
Fair Value$0.99$1.03$1.08
Upside / Downside-94.46%-94.21%-93.94%

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