Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Autek China Inc. (300595.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.20 - $51.85$24.95
Multi-Stage$9.96 - $10.87$10.41
Blended Fair Value$17.68
Current Price$17.15
Upside3.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.33%26.77%0.230.140.140.140.050.040.030.030.080.01
YoY Growth--60.42%1.80%-0.03%204.22%26.11%29.54%5.30%-67.69%808.02%-57.24%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.76%0.42%0.38%0.07%0.14%0.18%0.30%1.00%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)491.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)286.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.3461.4636.88
Cash Retained (M)286.21286.21286.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.34-61.46-36.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)187.87224.75249.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)893.33893.33893.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.20$24.95$51.85
Upside / Downside-11.35%45.50%202.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)491.70523.66557.70593.95632.56673.67693.88
Payout Ratio41.79%51.43%61.08%70.72%80.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.49269.34340.62420.02508.31606.31641.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.56%8.56%8.56%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)245.78248.11250.44
Year 2 PV (M)283.64289.04294.50
Year 3 PV (M)319.17328.34337.67
Year 4 PV (M)352.48366.04379.98
Year 5 PV (M)383.66402.19421.43
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,310.647,663.758,030.37
Equity Value (M)8,895.389,297.479,714.39
Shares Outstanding (M)893.33893.33893.33
Fair Value$9.96$10.41$10.87
Upside / Downside-41.94%-39.31%-36.59%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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