Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Tokatsu Holdings Co.,Ltd. (2754.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$672.63 - $1,016.53$834.72
Multi-Stage$1,337.12 - $1,472.71$1,403.58
Blended Fair Value$1,119.15
Current Price$529.99
Upside111.16%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020
DPS0.00%0.00%14.309.539.539.539.530.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--50.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.70%2.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)397.08
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)72.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)324.51
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)79.4249.6429.78
Cash Retained (M)324.51324.51324.51
(-) Cash Required (M)-79.42-49.64-29.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)245.09274.87294.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5.085.085.08
(=) Excess Retained per Share48.2954.1658.07
LTM Dividend per Share14.3014.3014.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share48.2954.1658.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend62.5968.4672.37
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$672.63$834.72$1,016.53
Upside / Downside26.91%57.50%91.80%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)397.08393.11389.18385.29381.44377.62388.95
Payout Ratio18.28%32.62%46.97%61.31%75.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)72.57128.24182.78236.22288.58339.86359.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.12%7.12%7.12%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)118.51119.72120.92
Year 2 PV (M)156.09159.29162.53
Year 3 PV (M)186.42192.18198.07
Year 4 PV (M)210.45219.17228.16
Year 5 PV (M)229.04240.97253.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,885.476,191.946,511.05
Equity Value (M)6,785.987,123.277,474.12
Shares Outstanding (M)5.085.085.08
Fair Value$1,337.12$1,403.58$1,472.71
Upside / Downside152.29%164.83%177.87%

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