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Definitive Analysis

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Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (1788.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Financial - Capital MarketsSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.51 - $0.70$0.61
Multi-Stage$1.51 - $1.67$1.59
Blended Fair Value$1.10
Current Price$3.43
Upside-68.04%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.16%-6.13%0.020.020.050.100.050.050.060.070.050.06
YoY Growth--4.99%-58.15%-50.70%87.44%8.22%-20.26%-4.54%29.24%-9.98%36.45%
Dividend Yield--1.97%3.55%6.96%9.41%5.21%3.63%4.98%2.59%2.13%2.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)979.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)316.68
(=) Cash Retained (M)663.03
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)195.94122.4673.48
Cash Retained (M)663.03663.03663.03
(-) Cash Required (M)-195.94-122.46-73.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)467.09540.56589.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)9,544.979,544.979,544.97
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.030.030.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.090.09
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-8.13%-7.13%-6.13%
Fair Value$0.51$0.61$0.70
Upside / Downside-85.07%-82.29%-79.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)979.71909.82844.92784.65728.67676.69696.99
Payout Ratio32.32%43.86%55.39%66.93%78.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)316.68399.04468.04525.16571.75609.02644.72

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.60%6.60%6.60%
Growth Rate-8.13%-7.13%-6.13%
Year 1 PV (M)370.32374.35378.38
Year 2 PV (M)403.08411.91420.83
Year 3 PV (M)419.72433.58447.74
Year 4 PV (M)424.07442.83462.22
Year 5 PV (M)419.20442.51466.86
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,340.1413,026.5513,743.18
Equity Value (M)14,376.5215,131.7415,919.20
Shares Outstanding (M)9,544.979,544.979,544.97
Fair Value$1.51$1.59$1.67
Upside / Downside-56.09%-53.78%-51.38%

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