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Definitive Analysis

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ATON Inc. (158430.KQ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3,349.34 - $4,953.73$4,117.11
Multi-Stage$6,044.07 - $6,650.70$6,341.45
Blended Fair Value$5,229.28
Current Price$8,100.00
Upside-35.44%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172012
DPS0.00%0.00%87.3218.540.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--370.90%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.68%0.43%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,552.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,968.69
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,584.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,910.571,194.11716.46
Cash Retained (M)7,584.177,584.177,584.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,910.57-1,194.11-716.46
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,673.606,390.076,867.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)22.6222.6222.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share250.87282.55303.67
LTM Dividend per Share87.0587.0587.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share250.87282.55303.67
(=) Adjusted Dividend337.92369.60390.72
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$3,349.34$4,117.11$4,953.73
Upside / Downside-58.65%-49.17%-38.84%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,552.869,457.339,362.769,269.139,176.449,084.689,357.22
Payout Ratio20.61%34.49%48.37%62.24%76.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,968.693,261.524,528.305,769.426,985.268,176.218,655.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.89%7.89%7.89%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)2,992.543,023.083,053.61
Year 2 PV (M)3,812.193,890.393,969.38
Year 3 PV (M)4,456.484,594.304,734.93
Year 4 PV (M)4,950.655,155.835,367.33
Year 5 PV (M)5,316.825,593.685,881.95
PV of Terminal Value (M)115,161.07121,157.77127,401.72
Equity Value (M)136,689.75143,415.05150,408.92
Shares Outstanding (M)22.6222.6222.62
Fair Value$6,044.07$6,341.45$6,650.70
Upside / Downside-25.38%-21.71%-17.89%

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