Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $443.73 - $1,177.09 | $678.51 |
| Multi-Stage | $301.12 - $329.14 | $314.87 |
| Blended Fair Value | $496.69 | |
| Current Price | $630.28 | |
| Upside | -21.20% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.80% | 7.55% | 3.10 | 2.86 | 2.63 | 2.43 | 2.30 | 2.13 | 1.91 | 1.79 | 1.72 | 1.76 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 8.62% | 8.75% | 8.25% | 5.35% | 8.09% | 11.51% | 6.89% | 3.68% | -2.26% | 17.70% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 0.65% | 0.47% | 0.74% | 0.63% | 0.69% | 1.13% | 0.94% | 0.86% | 0.79% | 1.11% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 1,152.00 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 195.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 957.00 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 230.40 | 144.00 | 86.40 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 957.00 | 957.00 | 957.00 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -230.40 | -144.00 | -86.40 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 726.60 | 813.00 | 870.60 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 60.90 | 60.90 | 60.90 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 11.93 | 13.35 | 14.30 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3.20 | 3.20 | 3.20 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 11.93 | 13.35 | 14.30 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 15.13 | 16.55 | 17.50 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $443.73 | $678.51 | $1,177.09 |
| Upside / Downside | -29.60% | 7.65% | 86.76% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 1,152.00 | 1,226.88 | 1,306.63 | 1,391.56 | 1,482.01 | 1,578.34 | 1,625.69 |
| Payout Ratio | 16.93% | 31.54% | 46.16% | 60.77% | 75.39% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 195.00 | 386.98 | 603.09 | 845.66 | 1,117.22 | 1,420.51 | 1,503.76 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 9.10% | 9.10% | 9.10% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 351.38 | 354.71 | 358.04 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 497.23 | 506.70 | 516.26 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 633.07 | 651.25 | 669.77 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 759.42 | 788.63 | 818.67 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 876.75 | 919.09 | 963.06 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 15,220.27 | 15,955.42 | 16,718.70 |
| Equity Value (M) | 18,338.11 | 19,175.79 | 20,044.48 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 60.90 | 60.90 | 60.90 |
| Fair Value | $301.12 | $314.87 | $329.14 |
| Upside / Downside | -52.22% | -50.04% | -47.78% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EXPD | Expeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.50 | 24.32% |
| LISOX | Lazard International Strategic Equity Ptf Open Shares | 0.99% | $0.13 | 36.87% |
| MXC | Mexco Energy Corporation | 0.99% | $0.10 | 12.25% |
| NIC | Nicolet Bankshares, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.19 | 12.58% |
| PAYC | Paycom Software, Inc. | 0.99% | $1.51 | 18.80% |
| RRC | Range Resources Corporation | 0.99% | $0.35 | 14.60% |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance Corporation | 0.99% | $1.32 | 7.58% |
| WOR | Worthington Industries, Inc. | 0.99% | $0.52 | 23.95% |
| CNXN | PC Connection, Inc. | 0.98% | $0.56 | 16.89% |
| CAT | Caterpillar Inc. | 0.97% | $5.78 | 29.40% |
| CNK | Cinemark Holdings, Inc. | 0.97% | $0.23 | 18.28% |
| ECL | Ecolab Inc. | 0.97% | $2.54 | 36.57% |
| EVR | Evercore Inc. | 0.97% | $3.41 | 27.02% |
| LSBK | Lake Shore Bancorp, Inc. | 0.96% | $0.14 | 24.34% |
| 0ITL.L | Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. | 0.95% | $2.42 | 39.43% |
| 0IZI.L | W.W. Grainger, Inc. | 0.95% | $9.52 | 26.47% |
| 0L5V.L | The Sherwin-Williams Company | 0.95% | $3.11 | 30.09% |
| 0R2S.L | Stryker Corporation | 0.95% | $3.28 | 43.09% |
| RRX | Regal Rexnord Corporation | 0.95% | $1.39 | 36.07% |
| WT | WisdomTree, Inc. | 0.95% | $0.12 | 18.12% |
| J | Jacobs Solutions Inc. | 0.94% | $1.27 | 53.80% |
| ORCL | Oracle Corporation | 0.94% | $1.84 | 34.81% |
| TCBS | Texas Community Bancshares, Inc. | 0.94% | $0.17 | 19.22% |
| IMKTA | Ingles Markets, Incorporated | 0.93% | $0.65 | 14.68% |
| ODC | Oil-Dri Corporation of America | 0.93% | $0.45 | 12.28% |
| PENG | Penguin Solutions, Inc. | 0.93% | $0.19 | 40.17% |
| SSBK | Southern States Bancshares, Inc. | 0.93% | $0.34 | 9.19% |
| DAL | Delta Air Lines, Inc. | 0.92% | $0.63 | 8.94% |
| HIFS | Hingham Institution for Savings | 0.92% | $2.49 | 12.15% |
| RL | Ralph Lauren Corporation | 0.92% | $3.34 | 24.37% |
| OPY | Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. | 0.91% | $0.66 | 8.90% |
| BGC | BGC Group, Inc | 0.90% | $0.08 | 23.56% |
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings, Inc. | 0.90% | $0.37 | 33.35% |
| MBNKP | Medallion Bank | 0.90% | $0.23 | 12.50% |
| JBHT | J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc. | 0.89% | $1.75 | 30.14% |
| NYT | The New York Times Company | 0.89% | $0.62 | 30.32% |
| RMD | ResMed Inc. | 0.89% | $2.18 | 22.31% |
| VBFC | Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp. | 0.89% | $0.72 | 15.35% |
| 0I14.L | Cognex Corporation | 0.88% | $0.32 | 49.16% |
| AR | Antero Resources Corporation | 0.88% | $0.30 | 17.15% |
| LDOS | Leidos Holdings, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.61 | 14.88% |
| LMAT | LeMaitre Vascular, Inc. | 0.88% | $0.70 | 32.20% |
| NNI | Nelnet, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.14 | 9.52% |
| PFSI | PennyMac Financial Services, Inc. | 0.88% | $1.16 | 12.49% |
| SMBK | SmartFinancial, Inc. | 0.88% | $0.32 | 11.76% |
| BYD | Boyd Gaming Corporation | 0.87% | $0.75 | 3.22% |
| ROST | Ross Stores, Inc. | 0.87% | $1.59 | 24.85% |
| BBSI | Barrett Business Services, Inc. | 0.86% | $0.31 | 15.02% |
| BCO | The Brink's Company | 0.86% | $1.00 | 24.81% |
| HXL | Hexcel Corporation | 0.86% | $0.66 | 77.18% |