Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Alcon Inc. (0A0D.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.28 - $23.56$19.82
Multi-Stage$26.35 - $28.99$27.64
Blended Fair Value$23.73
Current Price$81.06
Upside-70.72%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.260.230.200.110.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--12.07%16.00%85.19%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.32%0.29%0.28%0.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,120.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)130.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)990.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)224.00140.0084.00
Cash Retained (M)990.00990.00990.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-224.00-140.00-84.00
(=) Excess Retained (M)766.00850.00906.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)497.70497.70497.70
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.541.711.82
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.541.711.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.801.972.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$16.28$19.82$23.56
Upside / Downside-79.91%-75.55%-70.93%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,120.001,108.801,097.711,086.731,075.871,065.111,097.06
Payout Ratio11.61%27.29%42.96%58.64%74.32%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)130.00302.54471.62637.29799.60958.601,014.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)275.18277.98280.79
Year 2 PV (M)390.16398.16406.25
Year 3 PV (M)479.52494.35509.48
Year 4 PV (M)547.22569.90593.28
Year 5 PV (M)596.69627.76660.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,825.3611,389.0611,976.01
Equity Value (M)13,114.1213,757.2114,425.91
Shares Outstanding (M)497.70497.70497.70
Fair Value$26.35$27.64$28.99
Upside / Downside-67.49%-65.90%-64.24%

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