Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shindaeyang Paper Co., Ltd. (016590.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Paper, Lumber & Forest ProductsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$118,988.45 - $140,194.75$131,380.14
Multi-Stage$48,721.24 - $53,453.02$51,042.98
Blended Fair Value$91,211.56
Current Price$12,410.00
Upside634.98%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.59%16.33%166.02151.12153.2987.6895.47115.1650.190.000.0045.66
YoY Growth--9.86%-1.42%74.83%-8.16%-17.09%129.44%0.00%0.00%-100.00%24.78%
Dividend Yield--2.41%2.38%1.80%0.90%1.17%2.22%0.57%0.00%0.00%1.88%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)21,274.48
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6,010.16
(=) Cash Retained (M)15,264.31
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,254.902,659.311,595.59
Cash Retained (M)15,264.3115,264.3115,264.31
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,254.90-2,659.31-1,595.59
(=) Excess Retained (M)11,009.4212,605.0013,668.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)30.1130.1130.11
(=) Excess Retained per Share365.65418.65453.97
LTM Dividend per Share199.61199.61199.61
(+) Excess Retained per Share365.65418.65453.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend565.27618.26653.59
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate5.25%6.25%7.25%
Fair Value$118,988.45$131,380.14$140,194.75
Upside / Downside858.81%958.66%1,029.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)21,274.4822,604.1424,016.9125,517.9827,112.8628,807.4329,671.65
Payout Ratio28.25%40.60%52.95%65.30%77.65%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6,010.169,177.3912,717.0416,663.3021,053.1725,926.6927,446.28

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.50%4.50%4.50%
Growth Rate5.25%6.25%7.25%
Year 1 PV (M)8,699.148,781.798,864.45
Year 2 PV (M)11,426.1711,644.3311,864.54
Year 3 PV (M)14,191.6614,600.0215,016.15
Year 4 PV (M)16,996.0117,651.2018,325.16
Year 5 PV (M)19,839.6420,800.2221,797.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,395,795.081,463,375.661,533,548.90
Equity Value (M)1,466,947.701,536,853.221,609,416.85
Shares Outstanding (M)30.1130.1130.11
Fair Value$48,721.24$51,042.98$53,453.02
Upside / Downside292.60%311.31%330.73%

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