DDM Analysis: 0133.HK

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$12.49 - $19.26	$15.63
Multi-Stage	$19.57 - $21.51	$20.52
Blended Fair Value	$18.08
Current Price	$1.88
Upside	861.60%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	11.38%	7.18%	0.12	0.07	0.14	0.08	0.07	0.07	0.11	0.06	0.06	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	71.43%	-50.00%	75.00%	14.29%	0.00%	-36.36%	83.33%	0.00%	0.00%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	6.63%	7.14%	13.33%	6.67%	5.83%	5.34%	9.09%	3.61%	4.03%	3.61%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	202.85
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	28.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)	173.90

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	40.57	25.36	15.21
Cash Retained (M)	173.90	173.90	173.90
(-) Cash Required (M)	-40.57	-25.36	-15.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)	133.33	148.55	158.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	152.33	152.33	152.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	0.98	1.04
LTM Dividend per Share	0.19	0.19	0.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.88	0.98	1.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.07	1.17	1.23
WACC / Discount Rate	8.08%	8.08%	8.08%
Growth Rate	-0.41%	0.59%	1.59%
Fair Value	$12.49	$15.63	$19.26
Upside / Downside	564.19%	731.63%	924.57%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	202.85	204.04	205.24	206.45	207.67	208.89	215.15
Payout Ratio	14.27%	29.41%	44.56%	59.71%	74.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	28.94	60.02	91.46	123.27	155.45	188.00	199.02

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.08%	8.08%	8.08%
Growth Rate	-0.41%	0.59%	1.59%
Year 1 PV (M)	54.98	55.53	56.08
Year 2 PV (M)	76.74	78.29	79.85
Year 3 PV (M)	94.74	97.62	100.56
Year 4 PV (M)	109.44	113.90	118.50
Year 5 PV (M)	121.24	127.45	133.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,524.02	2,653.31	2,787.85
Equity Value (M)	2,981.15	3,126.10	3,276.75
Shares Outstanding (M)	152.33	152.33	152.33
Fair Value	$19.57	$20.52	$21.51
Upside / Downside	940.95%	991.57%	1,044.17%

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RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
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0IZI.L	W.W. Grainger, Inc.	0.95%	$9.52	26.47%
0L5V.L	The Sherwin-Williams Company	0.95%	$3.11	30.09%
0R2S.L	Stryker Corporation	0.95%	$3.28	43.09%
RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
IMKTA	Ingles Markets, Incorporated	0.93%	$0.65	14.68%
ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
BGC	BGC Group, Inc	0.90%	$0.08	23.56%
CDRE	Cadre Holdings, Inc.	0.90%	$0.37	33.35%
MBNKP	Medallion Bank	0.90%	$0.23	12.50%
JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
RMD	ResMed Inc.	0.89%	$2.18	22.31%
VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
0I14.L	Cognex Corporation	0.88%	$0.32	49.16%
AR	Antero Resources Corporation	0.88%	$0.30	17.15%
LDOS	Leidos Holdings, Inc.	0.88%	$1.61	14.88%
LMAT	LeMaitre Vascular, Inc.	0.88%	$0.70	32.20%
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SMBK	SmartFinancial, Inc.	0.88%	$0.32	11.76%
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ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
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HXL	Hexcel Corporation	0.86%	$0.66	77.18%

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China Merchants China Direct Investments Limited (0133.HK)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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