DDM Analysis: 002746.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$35.75 - $68.20	$63.91
Multi-Stage	$10.96 - $11.98	$11.46
Blended Fair Value	$37.69
Current Price	$6.09
Upside	518.84%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-1.49%	22.65%	0.18	0.11	0.12	0.22	0.24	0.20	0.09	0.05	0.02	0.01
YoY Growth	-	-	62.07%	-5.89%	-45.72%	-6.76%	20.19%	119.39%	94.46%	105.38%	102.65%	-53.25%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.06%	1.71%	1.34%	2.30%	3.22%	1.90%	0.82%	0.81%	0.20%	0.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	287.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	237.55
(=) Cash Retained (M)	49.75

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	57.46	35.91	21.55
Cash Retained (M)	49.75	49.75	49.75
(-) Cash Required (M)	-57.46	-35.91	-21.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)	-7.71	13.84	28.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	837.79	837.79	837.79
(=) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.02	0.03
LTM Dividend per Share	0.28	0.28	0.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share	-0.01	0.02	0.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.30	0.32
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$35.75	$63.91	$68.20
Upside / Downside	486.95%	949.49%	1,019.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	287.30	305.98	325.87	347.05	369.60	393.63	405.44
Payout Ratio	82.68%	84.15%	85.61%	87.07%	88.54%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	237.55	257.47	278.97	302.19	327.24	354.27	375.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.31%	6.31%	6.31%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	239.91	242.19	244.46
Year 2 PV (M)	242.23	246.84	251.50
Year 3 PV (M)	244.49	251.51	258.66
Year 4 PV (M)	246.71	256.19	265.95
Year 5 PV (M)	248.87	260.89	273.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)	7,960.22	8,344.70	8,743.90
Equity Value (M)	9,182.44	9,602.33	10,037.85
Shares Outstanding (M)	837.79	837.79	837.79
Fair Value	$10.96	$11.46	$11.98
Upside / Downside	79.97%	88.20%	96.74%

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Shandong Xiantan Co., Ltd. (002746.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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