DDM Analysis: 002532.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$94.04 - $203.54	$190.74
Multi-Stage	$31.00 - $33.92	$32.43
Blended Fair Value	$111.59
Current Price	$11.59
Upside	862.79%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	87.63%	64.63%	0.51	0.38	0.40	0.63	0.26	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	0.00
YoY Growth	-	-	32.02%	-4.41%	-36.19%	144.52%	1,081.13%	-2.33%	539.78%	0.30%	-0.06%	0.40%
Dividend Yield	-	-	5.72%	5.60%	5.31%	8.18%	2.87%	0.37%	0.25%	0.06%	0.04%	0.04%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	4,711.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	2,359.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,351.67

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	942.32	588.95	353.37
Cash Retained (M)	2,351.67	2,351.67	2,351.67
(-) Cash Required (M)	-942.32	-588.95	-353.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,409.35	1,762.72	1,998.30
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	4,603.68	4,603.68	4,603.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.38	0.43
LTM Dividend per Share	0.51	0.51	0.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.31	0.38	0.43
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.82	0.90	0.95
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$94.04	$190.74	$203.54
Upside / Downside	711.42%	1,545.76%	1,656.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	4,711.58	5,017.83	5,343.99	5,691.35	6,061.29	6,455.27	6,648.93
Payout Ratio	50.09%	58.07%	66.05%	74.04%	82.02%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	2,359.91	2,913.86	3,529.84	4,213.59	4,971.32	5,809.75	6,150.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.42%	6.42%	6.42%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	2,712.40	2,738.11	2,763.82
Year 2 PV (M)	3,058.63	3,116.89	3,175.69
Year 3 PV (M)	3,398.68	3,496.24	3,595.65
Year 4 PV (M)	3,732.63	3,876.17	4,023.82
Year 5 PV (M)	4,060.56	4,256.69	4,460.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)	125,744.12	131,817.61	138,123.55
Equity Value (M)	142,707.02	149,301.71	156,142.86
Shares Outstanding (M)	4,603.68	4,603.68	4,603.68
Fair Value	$31.00	$32.43	$33.92
Upside / Downside	167.46%	179.82%	192.64%

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Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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