DDM Analysis: 002444.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$51.96 - $146.77	$80.97
Multi-Stage	$34.48 - $37.70	$36.06
Blended Fair Value	$58.51
Current Price	$30.77
Upside	90.17%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	31.14%	22.70%	0.66	0.40	0.06	0.04	0.04	0.17	0.02	0.09	0.09	0.17
YoY Growth	-	-	62.83%	573.71%	35.23%	22.19%	-78.61%	799.67%	-79.09%	0.00%	-46.98%	100.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.22%	1.52%	0.32%	0.27%	0.10%	1.81%	0.15%	0.77%	0.52%	1.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	2,523.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	307.81
(=) Cash Retained (M)	2,215.53

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	504.67	315.42	189.25
Cash Retained (M)	2,215.53	2,215.53	2,215.53
(-) Cash Required (M)	-504.67	-315.42	-189.25
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,710.86	1,900.11	2,026.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,194.48	1,194.48	1,194.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share	1.43	1.59	1.70
LTM Dividend per Share	0.26	0.26	0.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share	1.43	1.59	1.70
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.69	1.85	1.95
WACC / Discount Rate	8.93%	8.93%	8.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$51.96	$80.97	$146.77
Upside / Downside	68.87%	163.15%	376.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	2,523.35	2,687.36	2,862.04	3,048.08	3,246.20	3,457.20	3,560.92
Payout Ratio	12.20%	27.76%	43.32%	58.88%	74.44%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	307.81	745.98	1,239.81	1,794.69	2,416.46	3,111.48	3,293.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.93%	8.93%	8.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	678.39	684.82	691.25
Year 2 PV (M)	1,025.32	1,044.84	1,064.56
Year 3 PV (M)	1,349.71	1,388.46	1,427.94
Year 4 PV (M)	1,652.65	1,716.21	1,781.58
Year 5 PV (M)	1,935.17	2,028.64	2,125.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)	34,539.06	36,207.31	37,939.41
Equity Value (M)	41,180.30	43,070.28	45,030.42
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,194.48	1,194.48	1,194.48
Fair Value	$34.48	$36.06	$37.70
Upside / Downside	12.04%	17.18%	22.52%

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Hangzhou Greatstar Industrial Co., Ltd (002444.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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