DDM Analysis: 002400.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.40 - $12.06	$11.18
Multi-Stage	$1.59 - $1.73	$1.66
Blended Fair Value	$6.42
Current Price	$8.50
Upside	-24.51%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	8.58%	2.92%	0.05	0.06	0.02	0.02	0.03	0.03	0.04	0.07	0.08	0.06
YoY Growth	-	-	-23.34%	224.80%	-8.49%	-40.25%	10.85%	-29.58%	-42.51%	-9.72%	49.63%	61.52%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.58%	0.96%	0.31%	0.39%	0.69%	1.07%	1.03%	1.57%	0.78%	0.51%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	105.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	77.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)	28.57

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	21.16	13.22	7.93
Cash Retained (M)	28.57	28.57	28.57
(-) Cash Required (M)	-21.16	-13.22	-7.93
(=) Excess Retained (M)	7.41	15.34	20.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,744.36	1,744.36	1,744.36
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.00	0.01	0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.05	0.05	0.06
WACC / Discount Rate	7.01%	7.01%	7.01%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$3.40	$11.18	$12.06
Upside / Downside	-60.00%	31.49%	41.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	105.80	112.68	120.00	127.80	136.11	144.95	149.30
Payout Ratio	73.00%	76.40%	79.80%	83.20%	86.60%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	77.23	86.08	95.76	106.33	117.87	130.46	138.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	7.01%	7.01%	7.01%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	79.69	80.45	81.20
Year 2 PV (M)	82.07	83.63	85.21
Year 3 PV (M)	84.36	86.78	89.25
Year 4 PV (M)	86.57	89.90	93.33
Year 5 PV (M)	88.71	92.99	97.44
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,344.27	2,457.50	2,575.06
Equity Value (M)	2,765.67	2,891.25	3,021.49
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,744.36	1,744.36	1,744.36
Fair Value	$1.59	$1.66	$1.73
Upside / Downside	-81.35%	-80.50%	-79.62%

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Guangdong Advertising Group Co.,Ltd (002400.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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