DDM Analysis: 002315.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$30.62 - $65.77	$43.67
Multi-Stage	$22.74 - $24.81	$23.76
Blended Fair Value	$33.71
Current Price	$48.35
Upside	-30.28%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	33.12%	15.38%	1.55	0.88	0.77	0.48	0.56	0.37	0.37	0.37	0.37	0.30
YoY Growth	-	-	75.30%	14.09%	60.77%	-14.22%	51.55%	-1.16%	0.91%	0.26%	25.00%	-20.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	3.60%	2.47%	3.31%	3.14%	2.34%	2.48%	3.07%	2.26%	1.63%	1.10%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	509.79
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	174.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)	335.31

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	101.96	63.72	38.23
Cash Retained (M)	335.31	335.31	335.31
(-) Cash Required (M)	-101.96	-63.72	-38.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	233.35	271.58	297.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	317.16	317.16	317.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.86	0.94
LTM Dividend per Share	0.55	0.55	0.55
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.74	0.86	0.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend	1.29	1.41	1.49
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Fair Value	$30.62	$43.67	$65.77
Upside / Downside	-36.67%	-9.69%	36.02%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	509.79	542.92	578.21	615.80	655.82	698.45	719.41
Payout Ratio	34.23%	45.38%	56.54%	67.69%	78.85%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	174.48	246.38	326.90	416.84	517.09	628.61	665.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.93%	9.93%	9.93%
Growth Rate	5.50%	6.50%	7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)	222.02	224.13	226.23
Year 2 PV (M)	265.45	270.51	275.61
Year 3 PV (M)	305.02	313.77	322.69
Year 4 PV (M)	340.96	354.07	367.56
Year 5 PV (M)	373.51	391.56	410.29
PV of Terminal Value (M)	5,705.52	5,981.10	6,267.23
Equity Value (M)	7,212.48	7,535.13	7,869.61
Shares Outstanding (M)	317.16	317.16	317.16
Fair Value	$22.74	$23.76	$24.81
Upside / Downside	-52.97%	-50.86%	-48.68%

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RRC	Range Resources Corporation	0.99%	$0.35	14.60%
WLFC	Willis Lease Finance Corporation	0.99%	$1.32	7.58%
WOR	Worthington Industries, Inc.	0.99%	$0.52	23.95%
CNXN	PC Connection, Inc.	0.98%	$0.56	16.89%
CAT	Caterpillar Inc.	0.97%	$5.78	29.40%
CNK	Cinemark Holdings, Inc.	0.97%	$0.23	18.28%
ECL	Ecolab Inc.	0.97%	$2.54	36.57%
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RRX	Regal Rexnord Corporation	0.95%	$1.39	36.07%
WT	WisdomTree, Inc.	0.95%	$0.12	18.12%
J	Jacobs Solutions Inc.	0.94%	$1.27	53.80%
ORCL	Oracle Corporation	0.94%	$1.84	34.81%
TCBS	Texas Community Bancshares, Inc.	0.94%	$0.17	19.22%
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ODC	Oil-Dri Corporation of America	0.93%	$0.45	12.28%
PENG	Penguin Solutions, Inc.	0.93%	$0.19	40.17%
SSBK	Southern States Bancshares, Inc.	0.93%	$0.34	9.19%
DAL	Delta Air Lines, Inc.	0.92%	$0.63	8.94%
HIFS	Hingham Institution for Savings	0.92%	$2.49	12.15%
RL	Ralph Lauren Corporation	0.92%	$3.34	24.37%
OPY	Oppenheimer Holdings Inc.	0.91%	$0.66	8.90%
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JBHT	J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc.	0.89%	$1.75	30.14%
NYT	The New York Times Company	0.89%	$0.62	30.32%
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VBFC	Village Bank and Trust Financial Corp.	0.89%	$0.72	15.35%
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ROST	Ross Stores, Inc.	0.87%	$1.59	24.85%
BBSI	Barrett Business Services, Inc.	0.86%	$0.31	15.02%
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Focus Technology Co., Ltd. (002315.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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