DDM Analysis: 002167.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$3.92 - $6.51	$5.06
Multi-Stage	$5.02 - $5.51	$5.26
Blended Fair Value	$5.16
Current Price	$14.34
Upside	-64.01%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-25.73%	-15.06%	0.03	0.05	0.02	0.05	0.10	0.13	0.13	0.17	0.14	0.11
YoY Growth	-	-	-39.10%	94.67%	-49.89%	-50.74%	-22.80%	-3.24%	-20.88%	18.49%	32.29%	-27.85%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.32%	0.69%	0.32%	0.71%	1.89%	2.19%	1.75%	1.83%	1.23%	1.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	256.84
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	11.88
(=) Cash Retained (M)	244.96

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	51.37	32.10	19.26
Cash Retained (M)	244.96	244.96	244.96
(-) Cash Required (M)	-51.37	-32.10	-19.26
(=) Excess Retained (M)	193.59	212.85	225.69
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	774.20	774.20	774.20
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.27	0.29
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.25	0.27	0.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.27	0.29	0.31
WACC / Discount Rate	8.31%	8.31%	8.31%
Growth Rate	1.44%	2.44%	3.44%
Fair Value	$3.92	$5.06	$6.51
Upside / Downside	-72.70%	-64.71%	-54.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	256.84	263.10	269.51	276.08	282.81	289.70	298.39
Payout Ratio	4.63%	21.70%	38.78%	55.85%	72.93%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	11.88	57.09	104.50	154.19	206.24	260.73	276.01

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.31%	8.31%	8.31%
Growth Rate	1.44%	2.44%	3.44%
Year 1 PV (M)	52.20	52.71	53.22
Year 2 PV (M)	87.35	89.08	90.82
Year 3 PV (M)	117.82	121.34	124.93
Year 4 PV (M)	144.08	149.84	155.78
Year 5 PV (M)	166.52	174.90	183.60
PV of Terminal Value (M)	3,317.78	3,484.58	3,658.02
Equity Value (M)	3,885.75	4,072.45	4,266.38
Shares Outstanding (M)	774.20	774.20	774.20
Fair Value	$5.02	$5.26	$5.51
Upside / Downside	-65.00%	-63.32%	-61.57%

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Guangdong Orient Zirconic Ind Sci & Tech Co.,Ltd (002167.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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