DDM Analysis: 002051.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.43 - $2.00	$1.71
Multi-Stage	$2.43 - $2.68	$2.55
Blended Fair Value	$2.13
Current Price	$8.28
Upside	-74.24%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-12.01%	-1.47%	0.17	0.15	0.12	0.02	0.17	0.32	0.38	0.28	0.20	0.22
YoY Growth	-	-	11.62%	28.44%	585.61%	-89.85%	-47.13%	-14.78%	36.66%	39.05%	-9.05%	11.04%
Dividend Yield	-	-	2.12%	2.01%	1.12%	0.20%	2.31%	3.92%	2.39%	1.72%	0.85%	1.38%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	284.74
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	53.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)	231.36

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	56.95	35.59	21.36
Cash Retained (M)	231.36	231.36	231.36
(-) Cash Required (M)	-56.95	-35.59	-21.36
(=) Excess Retained (M)	174.41	195.77	210.00
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	1,221.66	1,221.66	1,221.66
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
LTM Dividend per Share	0.04	0.04	0.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.14	0.16	0.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.19	0.20	0.22
WACC / Discount Rate	9.14%	9.14%	9.14%
Growth Rate	-3.47%	-2.47%	-1.47%
Fair Value	$1.43	$1.71	$2.00
Upside / Downside	-82.76%	-79.30%	-75.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	284.74	277.71	270.86	264.18	257.66	251.30	258.84
Payout Ratio	18.75%	33.00%	47.25%	61.50%	75.75%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	53.38	91.64	127.98	162.47	195.17	226.17	239.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	9.14%	9.14%	9.14%
Growth Rate	-3.47%	-2.47%	-1.47%
Year 1 PV (M)	83.10	83.96	84.83
Year 2 PV (M)	105.25	107.44	109.65
Year 3 PV (M)	121.17	124.97	128.85
Year 4 PV (M)	132.00	137.56	143.29
Year 5 PV (M)	138.72	146.06	153.70
PV of Terminal Value (M)	2,391.74	2,518.21	2,649.98
Equity Value (M)	2,971.98	3,118.20	3,270.30
Shares Outstanding (M)	1,221.66	1,221.66	1,221.66
Fair Value	$2.43	$2.55	$2.68
Upside / Downside	-70.62%	-69.17%	-67.67%

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Financial Statements

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Sector

China CAMC Engineering Co., Ltd. (002051.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

High-Yield Dividend Screener