DDM Analysis: 001267.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2.10 - $4.45	$2.98
Multi-Stage	$2.05 - $2.23	$2.14
Blended Fair Value	$2.56
Current Price	$9.38
Upside	-72.69%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	10.46%	5.91%	0.06	0.06	0.06	0.04	0.06	0.04	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.02
YoY Growth	-	-	-0.73%	-5.05%	40.00%	-21.61%	59.01%	-22.68%	25.42%	172.38%	-18.85%	-49.64%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.64%	1.48%	0.89%	0.72%	0.95%	0.59%	0.77%	0.61%	0.23%	0.28%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	89.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	67.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)	22.22

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	17.97	11.23	6.74
Cash Retained (M)	22.22	22.22	22.22
(-) Cash Required (M)	-17.97	-11.23	-6.74
(=) Excess Retained (M)	4.25	10.99	15.48
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	784.47	784.47	784.47
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
LTM Dividend per Share	0.09	0.09	0.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.01	0.01	0.02
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.09	0.10	0.11
WACC / Discount Rate	8.43%	8.43%	8.43%
Growth Rate	3.91%	4.91%	5.91%
Fair Value	$2.10	$2.98	$4.45
Upside / Downside	-77.56%	-68.19%	-52.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	89.86	94.27	98.90	103.75	108.85	114.19	117.62
Payout Ratio	75.27%	78.22%	81.16%	84.11%	87.05%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	67.64	73.74	80.27	87.27	94.76	102.78	108.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.43%	8.43%	8.43%
Growth Rate	3.91%	4.91%	5.91%
Year 1 PV (M)	67.35	68.00	68.65
Year 2 PV (M)	66.97	68.27	69.58
Year 3 PV (M)	66.51	68.45	70.42
Year 4 PV (M)	65.97	68.54	71.19
Year 5 PV (M)	65.35	68.56	71.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,273.18	1,335.63	1,400.52
Equity Value (M)	1,605.33	1,677.45	1,752.25
Shares Outstanding (M)	784.47	784.47	784.47
Fair Value	$2.05	$2.14	$2.23
Upside / Downside	-78.18%	-77.20%	-76.19%

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Hui Lyu Ecological Technology Groups Co.,Ltd. (001267.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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