Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

Suncha Technology Co., Ltd. (001211.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Furnishings, Fixtures & AppliancesSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.63 - $3.94$3.25
Multi-Stage$5.22 - $5.73$5.47
Blended Fair Value$4.36
Current Price$26.48
Upside-83.54%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-6.45%0.00%0.240.290.600.600.140.330.140.140.000.00
YoY Growth---16.24%-52.42%-0.05%330.83%-58.25%145.30%-0.67%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.13%1.59%2.69%2.21%0.37%0.88%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)22.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)13.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)8.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.542.841.70
Cash Retained (M)8.958.958.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.54-2.84-1.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)4.416.117.25
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)71.5871.5871.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.280.29
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.63$3.25$3.94
Upside / Downside-90.07%-87.73%-85.14%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)22.7122.4822.2622.0321.8121.6022.24
Payout Ratio60.59%66.47%72.35%78.24%84.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)13.7614.9416.1017.2418.3519.4420.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.46%7.46%7.46%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)13.7713.9114.05
Year 2 PV (M)13.6713.9514.23
Year 3 PV (M)13.4813.8914.32
Year 4 PV (M)13.2113.7614.33
Year 5 PV (M)12.8913.5714.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)306.37322.32338.93
Equity Value (M)373.38391.39410.12
Shares Outstanding (M)71.5871.5871.58
Fair Value$5.22$5.47$5.73
Upside / Downside-80.30%-79.35%-78.36%

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