Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited (000968.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: CoalSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.60 - $9.93$7.43
Multi-Stage$9.01 - $9.90$9.44
Blended Fair Value$8.44
Current Price$6.84
Upside23.34%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS12.51%0.99%0.300.220.150.170.160.170.110.170.150.28
YoY Growth--37.71%43.02%-10.42%4.13%-1.87%45.81%-32.81%10.65%-45.74%4.07%
Dividend Yield--4.67%3.27%1.92%2.20%2.56%1.89%0.87%1.34%1.09%3.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)400.76
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)96.06
(=) Cash Retained (M)304.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)80.1550.1030.06
Cash Retained (M)304.70304.70304.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-80.15-50.10-30.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)224.54254.60274.64
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)968.81968.81968.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.230.260.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Fair Value$5.60$7.43$9.93
Upside / Downside-18.18%8.61%45.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)400.76407.87415.10422.46429.96437.58450.71
Payout Ratio23.97%37.18%50.38%63.59%76.79%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)96.06151.63209.14268.64330.18393.82416.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.73%6.73%6.73%
Growth Rate0.77%1.77%2.77%
Year 1 PV (M)140.67142.07143.46
Year 2 PV (M)180.00183.59187.21
Year 3 PV (M)214.49220.94227.52
Year 4 PV (M)244.58254.43264.58
Year 5 PV (M)270.63284.33298.57
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,676.058,064.548,468.60
Equity Value (M)8,726.419,149.899,589.94
Shares Outstanding (M)968.81968.81968.81
Fair Value$9.01$9.44$9.90
Upside / Downside31.69%38.08%44.72%

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